Tuesday, March 12, 2013

March Madness

If anyone pays attention to sports, which I am sure is nearly all of the world, then you are sure to know that March Madness is fast approaching. That sentence alone makes me happy. March Madness is, in all its glory, the best sporting event we have in America. Sure the Superbowl is probably the most popular, and the World Series is the one that is steeped with the most tradition, but March Madness is a four week marathon of epic buzzer beaters, Cinderella Stories, and Goliath Champions.

In the lead up to the tournament, the excitement builds over the final weeks of the season in February to Conference tournament time. Conference tournament time is the time, when some team like DePaul is going to win the Big East Tournament and steal a bid to the big dance from my beloved Virginia Cavaliers. Of course, that wouldn't be the case if UVa would have just beat George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion, but that's neither here nor there.

This year is the first year in recent memory that the top teams are so spread out that it seems like we have about 12 two seeds and no real number 1 seed, let alone 4. Sure Indiana is going to get one, but they have lost a couple stinkers recently, most notably to Minnesota. Duke is certainly deserving of a #1 seed, but they lost to Maryland, UVa, and got absolutely crushed by Miami. Michigan... ehh nah, not for me. Kansas isn't a #1 seed, especially with a loss to TCU??? No way. What about Gonzaga you ask? Well sure there record is wonderful, but they play in the West Coast Conference. Quick name 4 schools from the west coast conference outside of Gonzaga and St. Mary's... That is what I thought... you can't. Any time someone can make a case for Marquette --- who is currently 12th in the country ---  to be a #1 seed, then you know you have about 12 #2 seeds instead. That said if I had to pick my case for #1 seeds it would be: Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Gonzaga

Some teams on the bubble: LaSalle, Tennessee, UVa, Kentucky. Let's Review.

LaSalle: Aside from their back to back wins over Butler and VCU do nothing for me. They are the 5th seed in the Atlantic 10. They have a decent RPI of 39, and a BPI (one of ESPN's made up stats) of 53. Not only that but they are 21-8. One of their losses is to CCSU (Central Connecticut State University)... Really? I am going to go ahead and take them off the bubble, and put them squarely in the NIT.

Tennessee: Tennesse is an interesting case. Sitting at 19-11 and in a tie for 5th place in the SEC this team has some work to do in the SEC tourney. They have an 8 point loss to fellow bubble team UVa, in which they only scored 38 points. They very nearly went 0-January until they were able to squeek out, and I mean squeek out two 1 point wins over Alabama and Vandy on the 26th and 29th of the month. They did, however, finish strong 8-1 over their final nine including wins over then #25 Kentucky (more on them in a moment), and then #8 Florida. I have a hard time giving a team with less then 20 wins an at large bid. Win a game in the SEC and they should be in.

Virginia: Virginia is the most Jeckle and Hyde team on planet earth. A team with road wins against Wisconsin, where 94% of all people lose when they play there, and at Maryland, who is no slouch. That said , UVA went a whopping 3-8 on the road all year, and 0-1 in neutral court games. However, if LaSalle can lose to CCSU then UVa can lose to ODU. UVa has 4 wins against the RPI top 50: Wisconsin, Duke, NC State, UNC. The two losses were a 4 point loss to then #2 Miami on the road, and a 12 point stinker where UVA forgot to play defense in the 2nd half against UNC. If you were to ask yourself, Can UVA legitimately make a run in the tourney, the answer would be yes because of stout defense. You could also make the case for them to bow out almost as easily, because of shaky offense.  I think they get in, especially with a win over NC State in the ACC tourney.

Kentucky: Without Nerlens Noel, I have a hard time thinking this is a tournament team. That being said, we are talking about Kentucky, and though you should not get in on past achievement, what kind of tournament would we be holding with out a team like Kentucky involved? UK is the epitome of success in college basketball, the benchmark all programs try to achieve. Before Nerlens Noel went down, Kentucky was 17-6 and on pace for the tourney. Then on February 12th during the game against Florida, he went down with a gruesome knee injury. Since then they have gone, 4-4 with losses to Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Georgia. They did however beat #11 Florida in the season finale to make a real push to get in the tournament. At 21-10 I believe they are safely in.

Tournament prediction time. I think a team like VCU could be really dangerous, the way they use their Havoc defense is going to really force teams to pick up the pace and play at a tempo they cannot prepare for, and have not played at. VCU is an ideal tournament team because of the quick turnaround in games, and should find itself into the 2nd weekend easily. I ultimately think a team like Indiana will find their way into the final 4 along with Louisville, Ohio State, and Florida. Each of these teams has proven over the years that they are more then capable of putting together 5 wins in a row. My pick to cut down the nets is Indiana.

We are in for a good month of March, with lots of great basketball!

Go Hoos!